The Saudi decision to send Sharif to Pakistan may be part of a bigger agenda

The expected return of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan will certainly rattle both President Pervez Musharraf and another former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

The return of Nawaz Sharif, the man Musharraf overthrew in a 1999 coup to gain power, could bolster the opposition to the President ahead of crucial parliamentary elections on January 8, according to this CNN report.

Unlike Bhutto who returned to Pakistan, hoping for a deal with Musharraf, brokered by the US, Sharif has played his cards well so far by refusing to negotiate with Musharraf. This has diminished Bhutto's credibility with the public, while Sharif’s stock soars.

Bhutto, incidentally, never even whimpered a protest when Nawaz Sharif was deported to Saudi Arabia after his return to Pakistan. It is only when Musharraf, declared emergency in the country, and spurned a deal with Bhutto, that she started talking about opposition unity.

That said, her Pakistan People’s Party is talking of participation in the polls which are being held under emergency regulations which limit civil and political rights, according to this report.

Musharraf meanwhile continues to make a mockery of the institutions in Pakistan. A puppet court, set up in his fashion after emergency was declared, has cleared his election as president even while in army uniform. Musharraf ousted the independent Chief Justice of the Supreme Court a few days before he was expected to deliver an order on this petition that was likely to go against Musharraf.

Having ensured a veneer of legality to his re-election as President, Musharraf may now well resign from his army post, and control the army by proxy. Holding the election under emergency will help the President’s party win a majority in the Parliament, thus ensuring his control of Parliament, Judiciary, and the army.

Musharraf has done well for himself. Despite spurning US demands that remove the emergency, he continues to get US support, as the US is totally dependent on the Pakistan army to fight terrorists holed in the North West Frontier Province.

But problems will start for Musharraf once Nawaz Sharif reaches Pakistan. Unlike Bhutto, Sharif knows that at this point his best hopes are with the Pakistani people than in deals brokered by the US. The army may not back Musharraf to the hilt if the opposition against his rule snowballs. The army has indicated to the US that it would like to return to the barracks, according to some reports. That could mean the nemesis of Musharraf, and an opportunity for Sharif who also insists that the army should go back the barracks.

The army is not about to give up its control over Pakistani politics. But under pressure from the US to deliver in the war against terror, and facing public disaffection, as well as dissidence in its ranks, it may decide to lie low for a while. Saudi Arabia, which has allowed Sharif to leave despite protests from Musharraf, will also likely favor a restoration of normalcy in Pakistan, if only to reduce the prospects of Islamic fundamentalists gaining ground while the army is busy with Musharraf's political agenda. If one considers the political proximity of the Saudis to the US, the move by Saudi Arabia to let Sharif go to Paksitan clearly has a wink and a nod from the US.

A challenge for the new government in this eventuality will be to curb the army’s role in politics, to avoid more military coups in Pakistan. That resolution may however be harder to achieve.

Benazir Bhutto cozying to Nawaz Sharif in moment of rejection

Former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto said this week she was working to forge a partnership with Nawaz Sharif, the man overthrown as prime minister in a 1999 coup by President Pervez Musharraf. Bhutto also formally demanded that Musharraf step down, suggesting that a rumored deal between her and Musharraf has fallen through.

Benazir Bhutto wanted to play the heroine of Pakistan, when she returned to Pakistan last month. At that point there was no mention of collaboration with the opposition, particularly Nawaz Sharif. Blessed by the Americans, and with a power-sharing deal with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf brokered by the Americans, Bhutto hoped to present the democratic face of Pakistan.

Bhutto went along with Musharraf in keeping Nawaz Sharif, another Pakistan prime minister on the margin. On his return, Sharif had been deported to Saudi Arabia to serve an agreement he is said to have made with the Pakistan government to stay out of Pakistan for 10 years. Musharraf saw Sharif as a threat and so did Bhutto, and the Americans went along with it because Sharif was not willing to do a deal with Musharraf.

A deal between Bhutto and Musharraf suited the Americans – they would use the sophisticated, westernized Bhutto as a mascot to convince the world that the US had not forgotten its agenda of promoting democracy, while Musharraf and the army would continue to control the country and fight the war against terror on behalf of the Americans.

That scenario did not pan out as scripted. Bhutto came back to Pakistan to a tumultuous, if well orchestrated, welcome which however ended in tragedy as terrorists struck. But the message was not lost on Musharraf. Bhutto was popular, and she could easily turn that crowd against him. Musharraf’s other trouble was from Pakistan’s Supreme Court which was to rule on the validity of his re-election as President.

So Musharraf surprised the Americans and Bhutto by declaring an emergency in the country, and revamping the country’s Supreme Court. He now says the Supreme Court, purged of the pugnacious former Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, will clear his re-election.

Musharraf right now is no mood to concede to Bhutto’s demands, including an amendment to the consitution, that would give her a third term as prime minister. He does not need to. He has the opposition in jail and the Americans where he wants them. He knows that the Americans will not split with him or the army, as they value him far more than Bhutto as long as there are terrorists hiding in the North West Frontier province.

Bhutto can also ill-afford to do a deal with Musharraf who seems to be unwilling to make any concession to the opposition. Elections will be held in January under martial law, which will ensure that they will not be free or fair. “The emergency is to ensure elections go in an undisturbed manner,” Musharraf told the New York Times. He disagrees with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who has been demanding that he lift the emergency, he added.

Forlorn and friendless, Bhutto has now turned to Nawaz Sharif who has welcomed Benazir Bhutto's call for Pakistan's president to resign and said the opposition should unite against the military ruler. Bhutto, trying to set the agenda for Sharif, has announced her party may boycott the elections if they are held under martial law.

To be sure this is another alliance of convenience, but it will rattle Musharraf to see his two key opponents making common cause. Will that make him more receptive to American proposals when American Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte travels to Pakistan ? Or will it only strengthen his and the army’s resolve to cling to power at all costs ? Over to American diplomacy.

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Pakistan needs statesmen, not mere politicians

Benazir Bhutto is loving every minute of this, I am sure. The decision by the Pakistan government to restrain her from addressing a rally on Friday by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) unwittingly or wittingly makes her the uncrowned leader of the opposition in Pakistan.

Pakistan placed former premier Bhutto under house arrest on Friday, blocking her from a planned rally to protest President Pervez Musharraf's imposition of a state of emergency, according to this report by AFP.

The former prime minister who was willing to do a deal with Musharraf, even as other opposition leaders were against it, has very cynically positioned herself as the key political opposition to Musharraf. Her histrionics, devotedly covered by sections of the Western media, will certainly ensure that she now has a strong chance of being a winner if elections are called as promised in February 15.

With Nawaz Sharif in exile in Saudi Arabia, and other opposition leaders in jail or in hiding, this could have been a script written by Bhutto herself.

But will it help Pakistan get back to democracy and build sound democratic institutions? Or in the months ahead will Bhutto try to again do a deal with Musharraf, at the instance of the US who wants him at the helm at all costs.

For Bhutto the opportunity is now – to show that she is a stateswoman, and not a mere politician. Will she demand that the army pull back to the barracks after the February election ? Will she re-organize the army to ensure that it is more accountable to the people’s representatives ?

Bhutto has in the past complained that decisions about the country’s nuclear program were taken without her knowledge, and her government was in fact ousted after she came to know of it, and objected to it.

Will Bhutto change the system, or just move into it, and become part of it, if she is elected. This is a question many Pakistanis will ask of Bhutto and other contenders for the Prime Minister post. Will you change the system, that has made the military so powerful, or will you be comfortable once you have the top job as Prime Minister ?

Change may not come by an election alone. For a country that has seen the military and intelligence agencies control the government directly or indirectly for most of its history, change will only come if the army is made subservient to democratically elected leaders.

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In Pakistan, a spectacle turns to gore

Benazir Bhutto’s homecoming was designed to be a spectacle, a show of strength. The former prime minister boasted to an Indian television channel, NDTV, before her departure to Pakistan that she would meet with a groundswell of popular support in her country.

In organizing a spectacle of this scale, with over 200,000 people accompanying her motorcade from the airport in Karachi, Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) however took tremendous risks.

A crowd of that size was sure to be unmanageable, and a huge security risk -- a point not missed by the suicide bombers who attacked her convoy killing more than 125, and injuring more than 150.

The recrimination has now begun. Bhutto’s supporters say that the government did not provide adequate security to the procession. There are also dark hints that the Pakistani police and intelligence may have been involved in the attack.

Much is also being made of the radicalization of Pakistan, of the proliferation of Islamic fundamentalism. These arguments will surely buttress President Pervez Musharraf’s bid to stay in power, and will also ensure that Ms. Bhutto, regarded as pro-West by sections of the US and European media, will be regarded as the best hope of the US and the West to lead a transition to a democratic, pro-Western government in Pakistan.

That a bunch of terrorists were able to attack Bhutto’s procession is not an indication of widespread support for Islamic terrorists in Pakistan. It may be just that Bhutto’s temptation to make an impact on her first day in Pakistan created a security risk, an opportunity for the terrorists to fulfill their murderous mission.

It is difficult to put the blame at this point on the security provided by the government. When there are over 200,000 people shouting and yelling and jumping around in jubilation , management of these crowds can be a nightmare for security forces, and it is easy for a terrorist to infiltrate the crowds. At a press conference on Friday, Bhutto said she had been warned of terrorist attacks, with very specific information.

In a cynical sort of a way the terrorists have made a “martyr” of sorts of Bhutto, while embarrassing Musharraf.

This is not to say that radical Islam is not getting popular in Pakistan. It will in fact get worse, if a transition to democracy does not happen soon enough. If the US insists on maneuvering a pro-West government in Pakistan, over the heads of Bhutto’s opponents like Nawaz Sharif, it risks once again antagonizing large sections of Pakistanis. The US has to realize that it does not need pro-West government to fight Islamic fundamentalism. It needs democratically elected governments.

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Can Musharraf ride the tigress ?

Benazir Bhutto is scheduled to return to Pakistan on Thursday, with a wink and a nod from President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, and some say the Americans too.

Bhutto, a former prime minister of the country, will be received by hundreds of thousands of supporters who are gathering in the port city of Karachi to greet her, when she returns, after eight years of self-imposed exile, according to a report in The Times.

The former prime minister return to Pakistan is in sharp contrast to that of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, whose return to Pakistan last month was marked by arrests and lathi-charge of his supporters. Sharif was immediately deported to Saudi Arabia after the Pakistan government claimed that Sharif had signed an agreement to stay out of Pakistan for 10 years.

In contrast, the Government has deployed 3,500 soldiers and as many as 8,000 policemen are on duty to protect Benazir’s route from the airport to a rally near the tomb of Pakistan’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah tomorrow, according to The Times. A shipping container strengthened with bullet-proof glass was being prepared to take her through Karachi, it added.

Musharraf’s government has already passed an ordinance granting amnesty to her and other politicians on charges of corruption. That amnesty has been challenged in court. Musharraf’s own election as President earlier this month has not been declared officially, pending the disposal by the Supreme Court of petitions challenging the President standing for elections while in uniform. Musharraf has promised he will quit as army chief if he retains the post of President, and has already nominated his successor.

Into this chaos steps in Bhutto, attempting to claim the mantle of the democratic movement. Musharraf needs her to give his government legitimacy, and also to help him counter a tide of popular disaffection against his government. That will be particularly important when a new Parliament is elected.

Bhutto will in turn demand an amendment to rules prohibiting her from standing for a third term as prime minister. She will also demand more powers to the prime minister, including amendments to the constitution that prevent the President from dissolving Parliament.

On the face of it a superb deal, brokered by the US. The Americans get to keep Musharraf, an ally in the US war against terror, as President, while using Bhutto as a safety valve for democratic forces.

Benazir pledges to fight to restore democracy in Pakistan. In an interview to NDTV, an Indian TV channel, she however declined to commit herself on the return of Sharif to Pakistan, saying it involved a friendly country, Saudi Arabia. With Sharif out of the way, Bhutto evidently aims to fashion democracy in her own way in Pakistan.

Where will Musharraf figure in the new dispensation ? He suits Bhutto well to help remove the obstacles in her way, in return for his political legitimacy.

But Bhutto and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) can hardly afford to be seen to be too close to the President who is unpopular in Pakistan after years of his rule as head of the army and the government.

Bhutto is hence likely to push for an early election, reduction of the President’s power, and a third term for herself as Prime Minister. Her agenda will however be served only if she can keep the army in the barracks.

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In Pakistan, Bhutto gives in to Musharraf ?

In Pakistan, Bhutto gives in to Musharraf ?

One day ahead of his bid for re-election, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has got the legitimacy he was seeking – a deal with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

The government and Bhutto’s party said they had both agreed on a national reconciliation accord which would be made public later Friday, according to a report from AFP in Khaleej Times.

It appears however, at this point, that with Bhutto’s blessings, Musharraf will seek re-election on October 6 from a Parliament whose term is running out. This is just what Musharraf wanted, although his opponents wanted him to seek re-election after a new Parliament and provincial assemblies were elected.

The accord gives an amnesty for politicians active in Pakistan between 1988 and 1999 -- effectively clearing Bhutto of the corruption charges that forced her into exile eight years ago, according to AFP.

That clears the way for Bhutto, but it is not clear yet whether another former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is also in the clear. Will the Pakistan government still insist that he finish his 10 year term of exile ? That would leave the field open in the next parliament elections to Bhutto.

It also appears that the President will seek re-election even as he holds the post of chief of army staff. He has indicated that he will quit his army post if re-elected. Either way this ensures Musharraf stays in power.

From available information the deal seems one-sided, and unless it includes all the parties including that of Nawaz Sharif, it will look like a desperate Bhutto struck a deal with the President to further her own interests, rather than that of the country. It could also strengthen extremist elements in the country.

An agreement to be durable must also work out the modalities to send the army back to the barracks, and keep them out of politics. Else this deal will be one of many abortive and short-lasting moves by civilians to get power from the country's military.

Musharaff is still not in the clear as Pakistan's Supreme Court has to still rule on new petitions challenging his re-election. The agreement with Bhutto has to still be promulgated by the President.

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Theatre of the absurd in Pakistan

In an eventful day, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf appointed his successor as army chief, even as Pakistan’s opposition quit Parliament for his seeking re-election as President while holding the post of chief of army staff.

In yet another move the Pakistan government has dropped various corruption charges against former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, according to this report.

Gen. Ashfaq Kiani, a former intelligence chief, will become vice chief of the army on Monday but will take the top job of chief of the army only after Musharraf vacates it, according to a report by the Associated Press.

This may be a tactical move by Musharraf ahead of his re-election bid on October 6. By indicating his successor, he hopes to deflect criticism from the opposition about his holding two posts, and makes it easier for him to do a deal with Bhutto. However his opponents want him to quit his army post ahead of the election.

Bhutto may also be doing a terrible political mistake in cutting a deal with Musharraf. For one, Musharraf is seeking re-election from a parliament and provincial councils that are due for re-election this year, and are packed with Musharraf’s cronies. The opposition has been demanding that the election of the President should be after the Parliament election.

Also by leaving another Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif out of the new dispensation, Musharraf is confirming that his new avatar is not genuine, but only reflects his aim to continue cling to power. Sharif is currently in political exile in Saudi Arabia.

Being exonerated of corruption charges by a President who took over in a coup will not also help Bhutto’s image. She may prefer to fight it out in court instead, rather than be seen to be in debt to Musharraf.


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In Pakistan, army rule legalized by Supreme Court

The dismissal by Pakistan’s Supreme Court of petitions, challenging Pervez Musharraf from standing for re-election as President, even as he holds the post of Army chief, at one stroke removed any hope of a legal end to army rule in Pakistan. The 6-3 decision by Supreme Court judges on Friday in fact legalizes army rule in Pakistan.

On October 6, it appears that Pervez Musharraf will stand for President while also holding the post of chief of Pakistan’s army. In effect a victory for Musharraf will be a victory for the army and its continued dominance of Pakistani politics. Government lawyers, who first said that the President would resign from the army post if re-elected, later prevaricated.

The government, the Supreme Court, and the army were in fact rolled into one when under the The Oath of Judges Order 2000 the judges in Pakistan took a fresh oath of office swearing allegiance to military rule. Judges had to swear that they would not make decisions against the military rule.

The struggle for democracy will now move more dramatically to the streets. If earlier, opponents of Musharraf, political parties opposed to him, and the lawyers had hoped that the Supreme Court would rule in their favor, they will now have to take their protests to the street.

Musharraf is seeking re-election from a Parliament whose term ends in October this year, and his party has a majority in this parliament that was elected in 2002 at the peak of the General’s power. Once Musharraf is re-elected, and the army consolidate their rule, they will likely call for a general election, and they and their minions will decide who can contest and who will not. That may include former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, but will very definitely exclude another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.

It is only the people of Pakistan who can prevent this bizarre sequence of events from unfolding. Close allies like the US have long ago thrown their weight behind Musharraf, and are evidently proud that their boy has made it past the petitions in the Supreme Court.

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Musharraf: I don't want to be unemployed !

Musharraf: I don't want to be unemployed !

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is very worried he may be out of a job as developments unfold in Pakistan. He wants to keep his army job just in case he is not re-elected as President of the country.

The General, now in his 60s, has a wife and family to look after. The Pakistani people have to ensure their leader does not slip at his age into the ranks of the unemployed.

The very reasonable General has, in fact, offered to quit his army job if he gets elected as President.

If elected for a second term as president, Musharraf shall relinquish charge of the post of chief of army staff soon after elections and before taking the oath of president for the second term, lawyer Sharfuddin Pirzada told the Supreme Court today, according to a report by AFP.

Musharraf is facing a petition in the Supreme Court objecting to the President standing for presidential elections in uniform. The country's Election Commission has changed the rules to make it easier for Musharraf to seek a new five-year presidential term while retaining his post as army chief. It removed a rule barring government employees, including army officers, from running for political office.

The offer by Musharraf’s lawyer to the Supreme Court will ensure that the general continues to wield power even if he loses the election, pleasing some of his supporters including the US which believes that Musharraf’s continuation is critical to its war against terror.

In a country where the army has considerable influence and has toppled elected governments, Musharraf will likely wield real power, with a say in running the country.

Musharraf’s current term in office ends November 15. Musharraf’s re-election bid will be voted for by members of the national parliament and provincial councils, where his party has a strong presence. Opposition parties have asked for early parliament elections, after which the President should seek re-election. The parliament elections are due next year.

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Nawaz Sharif deported to Saudi Arabia

Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad

Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad

The commercial plane carrying former Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif landed in Islamabad a while ago, paving the way for a long confrontation between the exiled politician and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf.

It is not yet clear however whether Sharif will be detained, deported, or allowed to enter Pakistan unhindered by its military rulers.

Nawaz Sharif was ousted by Musharraf in a coup in 1999, and after some months in jail in Pakistan, struck a deal to leave Pakistan and go into exile in Saudi Arabia. The Pakistan government says that deal required him to stay away from Pakistan for 10 years, while Sharif said the period was five years.

The Pakistan Supreme Court however recently ruled that there was no impediment to Sharif returning to Pakistan. He had the right to return to the country, and the government could not come in his way, the court said.

As Sharif boarded a commercial airline Sunday to go back to Pakistan, with the stated aim of restoring democracy in Pakistan, Musharraf's options appeared limited, and would in any case end in wide-scale civil unrest.

Reports had the President arresting him on arrival, or his being deported back to Saudi Arabia. The authorities in Saudi Arabia said Sunday that they would provide Shariff shelter if he was deported from Pakistan. If Sharif were allowed into Pakistan, without restrictions, he and his supporters were likely to demand the ouster of Musharraf, the reports said.

Musharraf is preparing to try to secure another term in a presidential election by the national and provincial assemblies some time between September 15 and October 15.

A number of Sharif's supporters were arrested over the weekend, indicating that Musharraf was planning to take a tough line on Sharif.

Musharraf is often described by the US as a friend and ally in the war against terror. Osama bin Laden and other key jihadis are said to be in hiding in the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

US policy in Pakistan hypocritical

The US has often sworn by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf as a friend in the war against terror. Now they are backing him to the hilt as he faces civilian unrest within the country, trying to contrive a deal between the General and a former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, that would keep the General in power.

Meanwhile the General attempts to block the return to Pakistan of another Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who it appears will not play ball with either the Americans or the President.

Where does this place US President George Bush’s aim to promote democracy around the world ? Pakistan, a virtual client state of the US, would be evidently the first place to start.

The rub is that the US, we are told, is more comfortable with the President than Pakistan’s democrats in the fight against terror. The importance of having a stable, and Musharraf-run Pakistan is underscored by Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons, which the Americans fear could fall in terrorist hands if the Islamic jihadis over-run Pakistan.

This argument however overlooks conveniently that neither Bhutto or Sharif are Islamic extremists. The opposition to Musharaff in Pakistan is moderate. The continuation of an unpopular Musharraf government, with US support, will only strengthen extremist elements in the country.

Historically, the US has stood solidly behind Pakistani and its dictators, viewing the country as a gateway to the Middle East, even if it meant antagonizing a large democracy like India. That is the reason why former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi signed very wisely a treaty in the 1970s with the former Soviet Union. That is also the reason why India’s Leftist parties, and to an extent the scientific establishment, are wary of signing a nuclear deal with the US, that would give India access to American nuclear technology under certain conditions.

Indian’s don’t trust the Americans, and talk of the need for indigenous technology, because they have been the victims of American hypocrisy for decades.

It is now time for Bush, for all his posturing as the great champion of democracy, to set the record straight in South Asia, both within Pakistan, and in its relations with India.

To be sure, the US will say that Sharif and his family faces criminal charges in Pakistan. But Bush cannot be so naïve as to imagine that these charges are for real. Dictators are known to trump up charges, and try to compromise the judiciary, sometimes with a wink-and-a-nod from the US. Bush can’t have forgotten Musharaff’s botched attempt to get rid of the country's Supreme Court chief justice in March.